30 July 2012
NHC tracks Invest 99L as peak season nears.
OK... Finally, after a few slow weeks, there are signs that the North Atlantic is heating up.
The National Hurricane Center is tracking a wave in the C Atlantic—Invest 99L. Conditions aren't amazing, and it's still a bit early in the season for what we call Cape Verde systems.
Still, there are some things to like about this disturbance, from a chase perspective:
- It's at a very low latitude (S of 10N)—which makes it more likely that it'll make it to North America.
- It's moving W right now—not WNW—and the initial computer-model tracks aren't bad.
- The SHIPS model brings it to hurricane strength in a few days.
Right now, the NHC is giving it a 20% chance of development.
I'm not getting my hopes up, but hey—at least it's something to track as we head into peak season!
Image courtesy of Weather Underground.